[h=1]Peyton's fantasy value is dropping[/h][h=3]How free-agency moves have affected fantasy value of three top QBs[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
The dust is starting to settle around the league after the first wave of player movement in this year's NFL free-agency period. Upon assessing the adjusted personnel landscape, it becomes clear from a fantasy football perspective that there were three potential quantum shifts whose impact is likely to be felt from now until your fantasy football draft day.
Here's a look at how recent free-agency moves will have a fantasy impact on three of the league's top QBs, including Peyton Manning, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford.
[h=3]Peyton Manning will see a significant decline in his fantasy production[/h]
Manning is the defending fantasy points champion in large part because of an incredible confluence of positive factors that made up his record-setting season.
Last year, Manning had three wide receivers who were capable of posting WR1-caliber numbers (Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker) to go along with a superb pass-catching tight end (Julius Thomas) and a power rushing attack to take pressure off of the passing game. He took this group into a schedule that included matchups against teams from the NFC East and AFC South, a group that had three teams in the bottom seven of the league in quarterback points allowed and had only one club place in the top 10 in that category.
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This set of circumstances looks a lot like what Manning saw in his record-setting 2004 campaign. That season the Colts had three dominant wide receivers (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley), a great tight end (Dallas Clark) and strong rushing attack led by Edgerrin James. The schedule was also highly favorable, as a study I did for the book "Scientific Football 2005" noted the list of defensive players Manning beat for touchdowns that year, "reads like a who's who of rookies, backup players, players who were starting but were poor coverage players, and aging veterans who weren't re-signed by their clubs after the season."
Manning followed up that 2004 showing, which saw him rank second in the league in fantasy points (350), with a significant drop in his fantasy point production (232 points, ranked eighth overall and third among quarterbacks). The two primary factors in the drop-off were the decline of Stokley, whose durability issues prevented him repeating his career-best 2004 campaign, and a much tougher schedule.
The loss of Decker to free agency looks to mimic the impact of Stokley's decline. The free-agent replacement for Decker looks to either be Andre Caldwell or Emmanuel Sanders. Caldwell racked up only 200 receiving yards on 30 targets last year (for a mediocre 6.7 YPA) and has tallied only 234 targets in his six-year NFL career. Injuries were part of the reason Sanders had terrible numbers last year (11.04 yards per reception, ranked 32nd out of 34 wide receivers with 100 or more targets), but even on his best day, he might not be in Decker's class.
Denver's schedule also goes from fairly smooth to very choppy sailing in 2014, as the Broncos are due to square off against the NFC West and AFC East this season. Those divisions had five of the top 10 teams last year in terms of fewest fantasy quarterback points allowed and none ranked in the bottom third of the league in that metric.
Manning is still obviously a strong QB1 and will certainly be a contender for the points title at season's end, but expecting a repeat of this past year is not likely. He is one of three quarterbacks vying for the No. 1 fantasy QB spot this year (Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers being the other two) and thus should be considered a second-round, and possibly early third-round pick, in all leagues that don't place additional value on the quarterback position.
[h=3]Cam Newton is on the borderline of QB1 value[/h]
Prior to the recent addition of Jerricho Cotchery, the Panthers' wide receiving corps was more or less nonexistent. The release of Steve Smith and having three wide receivers leave via free agency (Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn Jr. and Domenik Hixon) pretty much gutted Carolina's roster of any wideout with significant NFL experience. Outside of Cotchery, the Panthers' current crop of wide receivers (Brenton Bersin, Toney Clemons, Tavarres King, Marvin McNutt, Kealoha Pilares and R.J. Webb) has a combined five NFL receptions among them.
This is a huge issue since Carolina's passing game was already dealing from a weak hand to begin with. Newton's downfield passing numbers last year were abysmal, as his 9.06 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA, a measure of production on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) ranked 38th in the league. Cotchery should help a bit in this arena, but according to ESPN Stats & Information, he finished 74th in vertical yards last year (302) and his 10.8 VYPA is only a step above what Newton posted.
There is a ton of quality wide receiver depth in the 2014 NFL draft, but even if the Panthers end up taking a potential impact player such as Florida State's Kelvin Benjamin (as Todd McShay's Mock Draft 3.0 has them doing), they are still going to be somewhat shorthanded at that position. It is also possible they could decide to use that first-round pick to replace retired left tackle Jordan Gross (Mel Kiper's Mock Draft 3.0 has them drafting Alabama offensive tackle Cyrus Kouandjio) and address wide receiver later in the draft, thus leaving them in an even more difficult short-term transition period.
Compounding all of this is the news that Newton recently underwent ankle surgery. As ESPN.com Carolina Panthers blogger David Newton notes, this will preclude Newton from getting on-field practice time with his new receiving corps prior to the start of training camp.
Under last year's circumstances, Newton was able to rank third in quarterback fantasy points (282) but only six points separated him from the sixth-place quarterback in that category (Philip Rivers). Given the extreme negative change in circumstance, as things stand today, Newton should be seen as a mid-tier and possibly lower-tier QB1.
[h=3]Golden Tate moves Matthew Stafford into upper-tier QB1 range[/h]
Coming off a disappointing season in 2013, the Lions were in need of several upgrades, particularly in their vertical passing game, as their 10.11 VYPA ranked 19th in the league last year.
Tate fits that bill quite well, as his 31.0 vertical yards per reception (VYPR) ranked second among wide receivers with at least 10 vertical receptions. His 11.4 VYPA is also a huge upgrade over Kris Durham. Durham ranked second on the Lions in vertical targets (40) last season but had an abysmal 6.8 VYPA.
This kind of downfield passing upgrade could be just what Stafford needs to make an upward move on draft boards. Stafford placed seventh in fantasy quarterback points scored last year (267) but he was only 16 points away from ranking in the top three. Tate's addition doesn't quite move Stafford into the upper echelon occupied by Peyton Manning, Brees and Rodgers, but it does vault him to the top of the list of the next tier of quarterbacks.
The dust is starting to settle around the league after the first wave of player movement in this year's NFL free-agency period. Upon assessing the adjusted personnel landscape, it becomes clear from a fantasy football perspective that there were three potential quantum shifts whose impact is likely to be felt from now until your fantasy football draft day.
Here's a look at how recent free-agency moves will have a fantasy impact on three of the league's top QBs, including Peyton Manning, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford.
[h=3]Peyton Manning will see a significant decline in his fantasy production[/h]
Manning is the defending fantasy points champion in large part because of an incredible confluence of positive factors that made up his record-setting season.
Last year, Manning had three wide receivers who were capable of posting WR1-caliber numbers (Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker) to go along with a superb pass-catching tight end (Julius Thomas) and a power rushing attack to take pressure off of the passing game. He took this group into a schedule that included matchups against teams from the NFC East and AFC South, a group that had three teams in the bottom seven of the league in quarterback points allowed and had only one club place in the top 10 in that category.
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This set of circumstances looks a lot like what Manning saw in his record-setting 2004 campaign. That season the Colts had three dominant wide receivers (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley), a great tight end (Dallas Clark) and strong rushing attack led by Edgerrin James. The schedule was also highly favorable, as a study I did for the book "Scientific Football 2005" noted the list of defensive players Manning beat for touchdowns that year, "reads like a who's who of rookies, backup players, players who were starting but were poor coverage players, and aging veterans who weren't re-signed by their clubs after the season."
Manning followed up that 2004 showing, which saw him rank second in the league in fantasy points (350), with a significant drop in his fantasy point production (232 points, ranked eighth overall and third among quarterbacks). The two primary factors in the drop-off were the decline of Stokley, whose durability issues prevented him repeating his career-best 2004 campaign, and a much tougher schedule.
The loss of Decker to free agency looks to mimic the impact of Stokley's decline. The free-agent replacement for Decker looks to either be Andre Caldwell or Emmanuel Sanders. Caldwell racked up only 200 receiving yards on 30 targets last year (for a mediocre 6.7 YPA) and has tallied only 234 targets in his six-year NFL career. Injuries were part of the reason Sanders had terrible numbers last year (11.04 yards per reception, ranked 32nd out of 34 wide receivers with 100 or more targets), but even on his best day, he might not be in Decker's class.
Denver's schedule also goes from fairly smooth to very choppy sailing in 2014, as the Broncos are due to square off against the NFC West and AFC East this season. Those divisions had five of the top 10 teams last year in terms of fewest fantasy quarterback points allowed and none ranked in the bottom third of the league in that metric.
Manning is still obviously a strong QB1 and will certainly be a contender for the points title at season's end, but expecting a repeat of this past year is not likely. He is one of three quarterbacks vying for the No. 1 fantasy QB spot this year (Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers being the other two) and thus should be considered a second-round, and possibly early third-round pick, in all leagues that don't place additional value on the quarterback position.
[h=3]Cam Newton is on the borderline of QB1 value[/h]
Prior to the recent addition of Jerricho Cotchery, the Panthers' wide receiving corps was more or less nonexistent. The release of Steve Smith and having three wide receivers leave via free agency (Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn Jr. and Domenik Hixon) pretty much gutted Carolina's roster of any wideout with significant NFL experience. Outside of Cotchery, the Panthers' current crop of wide receivers (Brenton Bersin, Toney Clemons, Tavarres King, Marvin McNutt, Kealoha Pilares and R.J. Webb) has a combined five NFL receptions among them.
This is a huge issue since Carolina's passing game was already dealing from a weak hand to begin with. Newton's downfield passing numbers last year were abysmal, as his 9.06 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA, a measure of production on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) ranked 38th in the league. Cotchery should help a bit in this arena, but according to ESPN Stats & Information, he finished 74th in vertical yards last year (302) and his 10.8 VYPA is only a step above what Newton posted.
There is a ton of quality wide receiver depth in the 2014 NFL draft, but even if the Panthers end up taking a potential impact player such as Florida State's Kelvin Benjamin (as Todd McShay's Mock Draft 3.0 has them doing), they are still going to be somewhat shorthanded at that position. It is also possible they could decide to use that first-round pick to replace retired left tackle Jordan Gross (Mel Kiper's Mock Draft 3.0 has them drafting Alabama offensive tackle Cyrus Kouandjio) and address wide receiver later in the draft, thus leaving them in an even more difficult short-term transition period.
Compounding all of this is the news that Newton recently underwent ankle surgery. As ESPN.com Carolina Panthers blogger David Newton notes, this will preclude Newton from getting on-field practice time with his new receiving corps prior to the start of training camp.
Under last year's circumstances, Newton was able to rank third in quarterback fantasy points (282) but only six points separated him from the sixth-place quarterback in that category (Philip Rivers). Given the extreme negative change in circumstance, as things stand today, Newton should be seen as a mid-tier and possibly lower-tier QB1.
[h=3]Golden Tate moves Matthew Stafford into upper-tier QB1 range[/h]
Coming off a disappointing season in 2013, the Lions were in need of several upgrades, particularly in their vertical passing game, as their 10.11 VYPA ranked 19th in the league last year.
Tate fits that bill quite well, as his 31.0 vertical yards per reception (VYPR) ranked second among wide receivers with at least 10 vertical receptions. His 11.4 VYPA is also a huge upgrade over Kris Durham. Durham ranked second on the Lions in vertical targets (40) last season but had an abysmal 6.8 VYPA.
This kind of downfield passing upgrade could be just what Stafford needs to make an upward move on draft boards. Stafford placed seventh in fantasy quarterback points scored last year (267) but he was only 16 points away from ranking in the top three. Tate's addition doesn't quite move Stafford into the upper echelon occupied by Peyton Manning, Brees and Rodgers, but it does vault him to the top of the list of the next tier of quarterbacks.
